Forex Trading Secrets: Abel"s Journey to Profitability
"Dr. Abush, my name is Abel Asrat (name changed for privacy), a 28-year-old Ethiopian who has been trading forex for the past year using an online brokerage. At first, I was excited about the potential profits, but over time, I've been losing more than I'm winning. The problem? I can't seem to predict the market trend. No matter how much research I do, it feels like I'm always one step behind. I know there are no guarantees in trading, but is there a secret to better predicting the forex market trend? How can I avoid these constant losses that are leading me to frustration? What should I be focusing on to consistently make profits rather than feeling like I'm gambling with my savings?"
10/11/20243 min read


Dr. Abush's Response:
In this edition of 'Ask the Expert ' section of our pulished Adwa Finance magazine, we address questions from our reader, Abel, who is embarking on his forex trading journey. Abel's questions touch upon important aspects of trading on how to consistently predict the trend of the market, providing valuable insights for both beginner and experienced investors.
Dear Abel, first of all, thank you for sharing your journey with such honesty. You're not alone—many traders, especially those in their first year, find themselves in a similar cycle of excitement, loss, and frustration. But here's the thing: forex trading, much like any form of investing, isn't just about luck or gambling—it’s about strategy, discipline, and learning how to read the markets with a sharper lens.
As a beginner trader, I've faced similar challenges. Through gradual learning, reading, and targeted courses, I've honed my skills and become a proficient trader. Predicting the market's daily movements is indeed complex, but by applying fundamental, technical, and sentimental analysis, I can often forecast its direction. However, the market can still surprise us, even with thorough analysis. In such unpredictable situations, risk management and emotional control become crucial tools.
Now, let’s dig a little deeper into your case. Imagine standing at the base of a mountain with fog covering the path ahead. You know you need to climb, but the steps are hidden. Some traders, like yourself, jump forward, trying to find their way through the fog by instinct. But what if there was a better way to map out the path? What if you could remove some of that fog?
The Myth of Predicting the Market
Abel, here’s the truth—there’s no crystal ball for forex trends. But don’t let that discourage you! The key isn’t in "predicting" the market, but in “recognizing patterns” and adjusting your strategy based on probability and risk management. Many traders fall into the trap of trying to predict exact movements, when in reality, what you need is a system that lets you ride trends with less emotion and more clarity.
Focus on Risk Management Over Prediction
What makes the difference between consistent traders and those caught in a loss cycle is “risk management”. Even if you predict the market trend 60% of the time, if you’re not managing your risk properly, one wrong trade can wipe out your gains.
Ask yourself:
- Are you using “stop-loss orders” to protect yourself when the market goes against you?
- Do you know your “risk-to-reward ratio” for each trade?
- Are you over-leveraging, putting more capital at risk than you can afford to lose?
Technical Indicators Are Your Friends
Instead of trying to guess trends, start analyzing what the market is showing you. Consider focusing on “technical indicators” that are trusted by successful traders. Use tools like “moving averages” to help identify longer-term trends, or “RSI (Relative Strength Index)”to gauge when a currency pair might be overbought or oversold. Patterns like “support and resistance levels” can give you insight into when a reversal might occur. These tools won’t give you 100% accuracy, but they help you navigate the market more effectively, making it less about guessing and more about probability.
Remove Emotion from the Equation
The market is not your opponent. Often, traders lose because they take market movement personally and make emotional decisions. If you feel your trade is slipping into a loss, don’t panic. Stick to your “trading plan”—adjust, but don’t react impulsively.
The Secret Is in the Mindset
Here’s where the real “secret” lies: “discipline”. It’s not the market that beats most traders—it’s their own reactions. A seasoned trader knows that losses are part of the game, but it's the way you handle those losses that defines your success. Don’t get discouraged by a few bad trades. Instead, view them as tuition paid for your education in trading.
My Final Advice
Focus on “developing a strategy”—not a perfect strategy, but one that works for you, your risk tolerance, and your trading style. Stick to it. “Start small”, make consistent gains, and most importantly, learn from every trade. There’s no rush—profits will come, but only if you stay patient and disciplined.
Wosen, trading isn’t gambling when approached with the right mindset and strategy. I believe you're closer to success than you think—keep pushing through the fog, and soon, the path will clear. You’ve got this.
Based on my experience, I highly recommend our courses to anyone looking to navigate the complexities of the market and enhance their trading skills. For more details about our course, I highly recommend visiting:(https://adwatransformation.com) for comprehensive guides.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this response is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
To other readers:- If you have personal or organizational finance questions, feel free to reach out to me at abushayalew@gmail.com. Let’s tackle your financial puzzles together